| MARKET OUTLOOK |
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- US : US markets were up at the end of the week helped by good earnings reports and rising oil prices. Stocks from House. & Personal Production, Software, Utilities and Commercial managed to outperform the market, while Semiconductors , Media, Banks and Energy were under pressure. Technically, US Indices should continue to rise this week (The Dow Jones and the S&P500 should bounce towards their recent highs) helped an expected 25 basis point cut in the FED funds rate.
- EUROPE : European markets ended higher last week due to record crude oil prices. Shares from Telecommunications, Automobiles & Parts, Technology and Construction & Materials were the best performs, while Health Care, Banks, Personal & Household Goods and Retail lost ground. On a technical point of view, the september 19th's gap area should still hold. Thus, an upside acceleration should be seen and new year highs should be seen soon on most indices.
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| MARKET ROUND UP |
|
Weekly chg (%) |
Last |
| Dow Jones |
2.1 |
13806.7 |
| Nasdaq 100 |
3 |
2194.6 |
| Dax Xetra |
0.8 |
7949.2 |
| Cac 40 |
0.9 |
5794.9 |
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| FOREIGN EXCHANGE |
Euro/dollar : the pair is approaching a potential bullish channel resistance around 1.46. LONG position above 1.41 with 1.46 in sight.
Dollar/yen : The pair is expected to bounce off a bullish channel support, but technical indicators are mixed. Bounce off 112.50 towards 117.9, then fallback towards 112.5.
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| COMPANY PREVIEW |
 ENI (EUR 25.16 ; -2.97% ; ENI ; ENI.MI)
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Tuesday, Eni is scheduled to unveil 3Q net income of E1.92bln (E2.42bln last year). Last week, the Co said that it expected an increase in its production and refining margins helped by a new unit, Eni Trading and Shipping, which plans to expand derivatives trading and risk management operations. Besides, the Co won exploration rights for 26 new blocks (estimated reserves of 650m barrels of oil) in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Procter and Gamble (USD 71.75 ; 1.34% ; PG ; PG.N)
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On the same day, in the US, Procter & Gamble will report 1Q EPS of $0.89 ($0.79 last year) on sales of $20.24bln ($18.78bln a year ago). On October 9, the Co started construction of its largest cosmetics plant in Poland, worth $55m. The plant will go into operation in 2009. In addition, the Co wants to raise $13.5bln to buy back shares through the sale of its Duracell, Folgers and Pringles units.
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Kraft Foods (USD 33.3 ; 2.15% ; KFT ; KFT.N)
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Kraft Foods is expected to post 3Q EPS of $0.41 ($0.46 last year) on sales of $8.69bln ($$8.24bln) on Wednesday. The Co was recently seeking antitrust approval for its E5.3bln acquisition of Groupe Danone's biscuit unit. At the beginning of this month, the Co was allowed to delay Procter & Gamble's lawsuit by two years. A few days earlier, the Co agreed to sell the Fruit20 and Veryfine to Sunny Delight Beverages as they didn't fit the Co's long-term strategy.
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ABN Amro (EUR 37.71 ; -0.05% ; AABA ; AABA.AS)
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On Thursday, ABN Amro Holding will release 3Q net income of E1.01bln. On October 21, the Co's 40% stake in Saudi Hollandi Bank was expected to be sold. In addition, the Co sold E200m loans for a leasing unit of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi. The group also announced that a E100m portion of the loan for Garanti Finansal Kiralama will be syndicated to a wider group of lenders.
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Exxon Mobil (USD 92.21 ; 0.08% ; XOM ; XOM.N)
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Finally, Exon Mobil may present 3Q earnings on the same day. 3Q EPS is expected to be at $1.73 vs $1.77 last year. In October, the Co started production from the Marimba North project off the coast of Angola, which designed to tap 80m barrels of oil and 40,000 barrels of peak production capacity a day. Besides, the Co signed a memorandum of understanding with Kuwait Oil to help the Persian Gulf sheikhdom produce heavy crude oil.
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Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps |
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| CORPORATE CALENDAR October 29th - November 2nd |
| Date |
Market |
Company |
Event |
|
| Monday, October 29th |
|
SW |
Scania B |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
SW |
Ssab Svenskt Stal A |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Verizon Communications |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Loews Corp |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Simon Property |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Kellogg |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
| Tuesday, October 30th |
|
GE |
BASF |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Metro |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Linde |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
IT |
ENI |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
IT |
Luxottica Group |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
IT |
Alleanza Assicurazioni |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
| Wednesday, October 31st |
|
GR |
Titan Cement |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Deutsche Bank |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Deutsche Boerse |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Man |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Continental |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
GE |
Fresenius Medical Care |
3rd-Quarter results |
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| Thursday, November 1st |
|
UK |
BAT |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
UK |
Astrazeneca |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
UK |
BG Group |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
UK |
Unilever (GB) |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
UK |
ICI |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
UK |
Shire |
3rd-Quarter results |
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| Friday, November 2nd |
|
US |
Chevron |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Viacom B |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Duke Energy Corp |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Edison Int. |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
International Paper |
3rd-Quarter results |
|
US |
Cigna |
3rd-Quarter results |
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| ECONOMIC CALENDAR (CET) October 29th - November 2nd |
| Date |
Market |
Economic data |
Period |
Expected |
Last |
|
| Monday, October 29th |
|
GE |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
OCT |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
GE |
CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) |
OCT |
0.1% |
0.2% |
| 10:30 |
UK |
M4 Money Supply (MoM) |
SEP |
NA |
1% |
| 11:30 |
UK |
Net Consumer Credit (Mln) |
SEP |
0.997 |
1.003 |
|
| Tuesday, October 30th |
| 10:55 |
GE |
Unemployment Change (Thsd) |
OCT |
-29.1 |
-50 |
| 10:55 |
GE |
Unemployment Rate |
OCT |
8.7% |
8.8% |
| 16:00 |
US |
Consumer Confidence |
OCT |
99.54 |
99.8 |
|
| Wednesday, October 31st |
| 08:00 |
GE |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
SEP |
0.9% |
-1.6% |
| 09:45 |
FR |
Consumer Confidence |
OCT |
-22 |
-21 |
| 09:50 |
FR |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
SEP |
0.2% |
0.2% |
| 11:00 |
EC |
Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence |
OCT |
2 |
3 |
| 11:00 |
EC |
Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence |
OCT |
-5 |
-6 |
| 12:00 |
EC |
Business Climate Indicator |
OCT |
NA |
1.09 |
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| Thursday, November 1st |
|
US |
Domestic Vehicule Sales (Mln) |
OCT |
12.2 |
12.5 |
|
US |
Total Vehicule Sales (Mln) |
OCT |
16 |
16.2 |
| 14:30 |
US |
Personal Income |
SEP |
0.4% |
0.3% |
| 14:30 |
US |
Personal Spending |
SEP |
0.3% |
0.6% |
| 14:30 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd) |
W42 |
NA |
331 |
| 16:00 |
US |
ISM - Manufacturing |
OCT |
51.7 |
52 |
|
| Friday, November 2nd |
| 14:30 |
US |
Unemployment Rate |
OCT |
4.7% |
4.7% |
| 14:30 |
US |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
OCT |
0.3% |
0.4% |
| 14:30 |
US |
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thsd) |
OCT |
78.86 |
110 |
| 14:30 |
US |
Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Thsd) |
OCT |
-13 |
-18 |
| 14:30 |
US |
Average Weekly Hours |
OCT |
33.8 |
33.8 |
| 16:00 |
US |
Factory Orders |
SEP |
0.8% |
-3.3% |
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