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Market Outlook August 17th - August 21st

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Market Outlook

- US : US markets fell for the first time in five weeks as a drop in consumer confidence fueled concerns regarding the strength of the economic recovery. Stocks from Food & Stapples, HealthCare Equipment and Utilities advanced whereas Real Estate, Automobile & Parts and Retailing sectors were under pressure. On a technical point of view, the immediate momentum is weakening. Consequently, some profit taking can not be ruled out in the coming days ahead of further recovery.

- EUROPE : European markets snapped a four-week rally as economic data weighs. Stocks from Construction, Utilities and Insurance rose while Automobile & Parts, Basic Ressources and Travel & Leisure sectors lost ground last week. Technically, as daily indicators are overbought, some profit taking are likely before a new upwave.

  August 17th - August 21st

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

-.5

9321.4

Nasdaq 100

-.5

1611.6

Dax Xetra

-2

5309.1

Cac 40

-1.1

3465.8

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The RSI is supported by a rising trend line, the pair is pulling back on its support before a new up move. LONG above 1.3750 towards 1.4460 & 1.4750.

Dollar/yen : The pair has struck against its LT bearish channel upper boundary as the RSI is turning down. SHORT @ 97.00 with 93.50 or even 91 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Hewlett Packard (USD 44.09 ; 1.26% ; HPQ ; HPQ.N)
On Tuesday, Hewlett Packard is expected to release 3Q EPS of appx. $0.9 vs $0.86 a year ago on sales of $27.2bln vs $28bln. Recently, the Co and Foxconn International reached an agreement to jointly invest $3bln to develop a laptop computer manufacturing hub in China. Besides, the Co's price target was raised to $52 from $45 at Bank of America. Technically, the stock remains well supported by its rising 20D MA. Hence, we expect a test of the $45.25 resistance before a further bounce to $46.5.

border=0 Target (USD 42.03 ; -2.1% ; TGT ; TGT.N)
The same day, Target may announce 2Q EPS of $0.66 compared with $0.82 a year ago on sales of $15.2bln vs $15.5bln. Earlier, the Co announced its plan to set up and manage its own platform for Target.com and expects to launch the new platform in 2011. Recently, the Co's price target was raised to $43 from $40 at Bank of America. From a technical view, the stock continued to consolidate last week above a key horizontal level at $40.5. As long as this level holds on the downside, a further rise is more likely towards $44.5-$45.0 after a short-term pause.

border=0 Rio Tinto (GBp 2356 ; 0.55% ; RIO ; RIO.L)
Thursday, Rio Tinto could report 1H net income of $2.9bln compared with $6.9bln a year earlier. Last week, the Co said its unit, Cloud Peak Energy filed a new registration statement with US SEC for a proposed IPO. In addition, the Co's price target was raised to 3400p from 2700p at Barclays. From a technical point of view, the stock remains under pressure below a huge resistance at 2635p. Therefore, the risk is for a retest of the 2200 and even 2000 support levels.

border=0 Ahold (EUR 8.01 ; 1.56% ; AH ; AH.AS)
On the same day, Ahold is expected to deliver 2Q net income of appx. E175m compared to E336m a year ago. Recently, the Dutch supermarket owner reported 2Q consolidated net sales of E6.4bln, up 11.5% YoY or 3.9% at constant exchange rates, but missing the consensus. Technically, the shares are still capped by its declining 50D MA as well as a downside trend line. As long as the bearish gap on 28 July 2009 remains open, a further drop will probably occur towards E7.7.

border=0 Gap (USD 18.78 ; 1.08% ; GPS ; GPS.N)
On Thursday in the US, Gap Inc, the international specialty retailer, may post 2Q EPS of $0.32 unchanged YoY on sales of $3.2bln vs $3.5bln a year ago. Early this month, the Co reported net sales of $924m in July, representing a 7% YoY decrease. The Co's comparable store sales for July 2009 were down 8% vs an 11 percent decrease in July 2008. Sabrina Simmons, CFO said: "We delivered July merchandise margins significantly above last year. We expect diluted EPS for the 2Q to be $0.30 to $0.32." Technically, the rising 20d MA at $17 should support the stock and allow for a test a very strong resistance area around $20.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar August 17th - August 21st

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Monday, August 17th

 

AS

Intercell

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

Fresnillo

1st-Half results

 

UK

Michael Page International

1st-Half results

 

US

Lowe's Companies

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Agilent Technologies

3rd-Quarter results

border=0 Tuesday, August 18th

 

DE

Sydbank

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

British Land

1st-Quarter results

 

NE

SBM Offshore

1st-Half results

 

US

Target

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Hewlett Packard

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

Home Depot

2nd-Quarter results

border=0 Wednesday, August 19th

 

DE

D/S Norden

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

Eurasian Natural Resources

1st-Half results

 

US

JDS Uniphase

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Limited Brands

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Deere & Co

3rd-Quarter results

 

US

NetApp Inc

1st-Quarter results

border=0 Thursday, August 20th

 

UK

Rio Tinto

1st-Half results

 

NE

Ahold

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

HJ Heinz

1st-Quarter results

 

US

Gap

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Sears Holdings

2nd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Holcim

2nd-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, August 21st

 

AS

Atrium European Real Estate

2nd-Quarter results

 

DE

APM Maersk

1st-Half results

 

SZ

Alpiq

1st-Half results

 

US

Jm Smucker Co/The-New Common

1st-Quarter results

Economic Calendar (CET) August 17th - August 21st

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, August 17th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln)

JUN

NA

1.9

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln) (MoM)

JUN

NA

1.9

14:30:00

US

Empire Manufacturing

AUG

2.17

-.55

19:00:00

US

NAHB Housing Market

AUG

19

17

border=0 Tuesday, August 18th

10:30:00

UK

CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)

JUL

-0.3%

0.3%

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment)

AUG

47.2

39.5

11:00:00

GE

Zew Survey (Current Situation)

AUG

-83.4

-89.3

14:30:00

US

Producer Price Index (MoM)

JUL

-0.2%

1.8%

14:30:00

US

Housing Starts (Thsd)

JUL

593

582

14:30:00

US

Bulding Permits (Thsd)

JUL

570

570

border=0 Wednesday, August 19th

08:00:00

GE

Producer Price Index (MoM)

JUL

-0.3%

-0.1%

10:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Current Account (Bln) (MoM)

JUN

NA

-13

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W32

NA

2519

border=0 Thursday, August 20th

10:30:00

UK

Public Sector Net Borrowing (Bln)

JUL

NA

13.002

10:30:00

UK

Public Finances (PSNCR) (Bln)

JUL

NA

18.98

10:30:00

UK

Retail Sales (MoM)

JUL

0.2%

1.2%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W32

NA

558

16:00:00

US

Philadelphia Fed.

AUG

-3.29

-7.5

16:00:00

US

Leading Indicators

JUL

0.6%

0.7%

border=0 Friday, August 21st

16:00:00

US

Existing Home Sales (Mln)

JUL

4.98

4.89


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