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Market Outlook August 10th - August 14th

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Market Outlook

 

- US : US markets rose for a fourth week, with the S&P 500 trading above the 1000-psychological level for the first time since November. On the economic front, manufacturing and home sales data were above expectations. Moreover, July Change in Nonfarm Payrolls reached -247k (vs -325k expected) while the unemployment rate fell to 9.4% from 9.5% in June (9.6% expected).
Stocks from Real Estate, Banks, Insurance and Diversified financials led the advance. On the downside, Telecom services and semiconductors sectors lost ground last week. Technically, the bullish momentum remains strong. Further recovery is likely in the coming weeks.

 

EUROPE : European indices rose last week and reached a nine month high on Friday as unemployment in the US rose less than expected in July. Stocks from Banks, Travel & Leisure and Insurance sectors were among the best performers while Healthcare stocks closed broadly flat wow. On a technical point of view, the upside still prevails in the weeks ahead.

 August 10th - August 14th

border=0 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

.9

9171.6

Nasdaq 100

.3

1603.4

Dax Xetra

1.5

5332.1

Cac 40

1.4

3420.2

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair is breaking above its resistance and should post a further up move as the RSI is supported by a rising trend line. LONG above 1.3750 towards 1.4750 & 1.5250.

Dollar/yen : The pair remains within a bearish channel but daily technical indicators are losing downward momentum, caution. SHORT @ 97.00 with 91 or even 87 in sight.
 

 

 

Company preview

BHP Billiton (GBp 1589 ; -2.22% ; BLT ; BIL.J)
On Wednesday, BHP Billiton may report a 2H pre-tax profit of appx. $5.3bln. Recently, the Co reported 4Q iron ore production of around 27m tons, down 10% YoY. Total petroleum output was 37.56m bbl, up 4%. In addition, the Co named Jac Nasser as Chairman, replacing Don Argus. Technically, the stock remains bullish above its 20D MA. the stock is more likely to test its nearest resistance at 1635 before a further bounce towards 1740.

ING Groep (EUR 9.22 ; -0.25% ; INGA ; ING.AS)
The same day, ING Groep may post 2Q net income of appx. E320m compared to a loss reported last year. Earlier, the bank agreed to sell its non-core Annuity and Mortgage businesses in Chile to Corp Group Vida Chile for un undisclosed price. Besides, the Co is seeking bids for its private banking operations in Asia and Switzerland according to a Reuters report. From a technical view, the stock continued to consolidate last week above a major support at E8.55. Hence, we expect a further up move towards E10 in the forthcoming days.

Nestle (CHF 44.12 ; 0.78% ; NESN ; NESN.VX)
Wednesday, Nestle could release 1H net income of SF4.8bln vs SF5.2bln a year ago on sales of SF52.6bln, almost unchanged YoY. Recently, the Co completed its SF15bln stock buyback initiated on August 2007 and could consider starting another share buyback of SF10bln soon. From a technical view, the stock is still bullish within a rising channel, as well as being supported by an ascending 20D MA since the middle of last June. Therefore, a further rise may be in sight with targets at SF46.5 and SF47.7.

RWE (EUR 58.72 ; -1.43% ; RWE ; RWEG.DE)
Thursday, RWE AG, the German utility giant, is expected to unveil 2Q net income of about E1.1bln compared to E347m a year ago. Last week, the Co's price target was cut to E72 from E74 at Morgan Stanley. Earlier, RWE's Dea unit agreed to take a 70% stake in the Breagh British North Sea natural gas field. Technically, the stock still remains under pressure below a huge medium-term resistance at E60.5. In the short-term, a re-test of this level cannot be ruled out and considering the positive equity markets an upside breakout even possible.

Wal-Mart (USD 49.29 ; -1.18% ; WMT ; WMT.N)
On the same day, Wal-Mart Stores may announce 2Q EPS of appx. $0.86 in line with last year. Recently, the Co and Williams Lea, a global business outsourcing company signed a multi-year print services agreement. In addition, the Co could raise 100bln yen by selling bonds to Japanese investors. Technically, the stock remains capped by a MT declining trend line. As long as $50.5 holds on the upside, a further pullback is expected to $47.5 at first.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

 

Corporate Calendar  August 10th - August 14th

Date

Market

Company

Event

Monday, August 10th

 

GE

Qiagen

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Sysco

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Fluor Corp

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Dynegy (A)

2nd-Quarter results

Tuesday, August 11th

 

UK

Friends Provident

1st-Half results

 

UK

Intercontinental Hotels

1st-Half results

 

UK

International Power

1st-Half results

 

US

Applied Materials

3rd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Adecco

2nd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Geberit

2nd-Quarter results

Wednesday, August 12th

 

GE

E.ON

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

BHP Billiton

annual results

 

NE

ING Groep

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Sara Lee

4th-Quarter results

 

US

Harris Corp

4th-Quarter results

 

SZ

Nestle

1st-Half results

Thursday, August 13th

 

GE

K+S

2nd-Quarter results

 

GE

TUI

2nd-Quarter results

 

GE

RWE

2nd-Quarter results

 

UK

Prudential

1st-Half results

 

NE

Aegon

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Wal-Mart

2nd-Quarter results

Friday, August 14th

 

GE

Hochtief

2nd-Quarter results

 

GE

Thyssenkrupp

3rd-Quarter results

 

SZ

Basilea Pharmaceutica

1st-Half results

 

US

Harman International

4th-Quarter results

 

US

JC Penney

2nd-Quarter results

 

US

Abercrombie & Fitch Co-Cl A

2nd-Quarter results

 

Economic Calendar (CET) August 10th  - August 14th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Tuesday, August 11th

08:00:00

GE

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

JUL

-0.1%

-0.1%

08:45:00

FR

Central Govt. Balance (Bln)

JUN

NA

-88.686

10:30:00

UK

Visible Trade Balance (Mln GBP)

JUN

NA

-6263

14:30:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

2Q

4.9%

1.6%

14:30:00

US

Unit Labor Costs

2Q

-1.7%

3%

16:00:00

US

Wholesale Inventories

JUN

-1%

-0.8%

border=0 Wednesday, August 12th

08:45:00

FR

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

JUL

NA

0.1%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM)

JUN

0.3%

0.5%

14:30:00

US

Trade Balance (Bln)

JUN

-28.184

-25.962

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W31

NA

1670

20:00:00

US

Monthly Budget Satement (Bln)

JUL

-144

-94.318

20:15:00

US

Fed: Rates decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

border=0 Thursday, August 13th

08:45:00

FR

GDP (QoQ)

2Q

NA

-1.2%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ)

2Q

-0.4%

-2.5%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W31

NA

550

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales

JUL

0.5%

0.6%

14:30:00

US

Retail Sales less Autos

JUL

0.1%

0.3%

16:00:00

US

Business Inventories

JUN

-0.9%

-1%

border=0 Friday, August 14th

08:45:00

FR

Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)

2Q

NA

-1.2%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM)

JUL

-0.5%

0.2%

14:30:00

US

Consumer Price Index (MoM)

JUL

0%

0.7%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Production (MoM)

JUL

0.5%

-0.4%

15:15:00

US

Industrial Capacity Utilization

JUL

68.3%

68%

16:00:00

US

U. of Michigan Confidence

AUG

69.2

64.6

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