Market Outlook July 20th - July 24th

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July 20th - July 24th

MARKET OUTLOOK

- US : US markets rose last week with the S&P 500 Index posting its biggest weekly gain since March, after Goldman Sachs and Intel results beat analysts estimates. Sentiment was also helped after CIT Group got a $3 billion rescue by bondholders and probably escaped bankruptcy. All sectors advanced last week led by shares in the Diversified Financials, Tech. Hardware, and Semiconductor sectors. On a technical point of view, following last week move the upside potential should now be limited. Consequently, better be cautious in the short term.

- EUROPE : European indices advanced last week. Oil rose above $64 a barrel bolstered by a fall in the dollar on hopes of a global economic recovery. Stocks from Automobile & Parts, Basic Ressources, Insurance and Banks rose the most whereas Travel & Leisure sector had a limited gain. On a technical point of view, following last week move the upside potential should now be limited, thus calling for caution in the short term.

MARKET ROUND UP

	Weekly chg (%)	Last
Dow Jones	7.3	8743.9
Nasdaq 100	7.6	1527.3
Dax Xetra	8.8	4978.4
Cac 40	7.9	3218.5

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Euro/dollar : The RSI is still challenging its MT rising trend line, the pair is rebounding on its support but remains below its resistance. SHORT below 1.44 towards 1.37 & 1.3250.

Dollar/yen : The pair remains within a bearish channel and is challenging its support, the RSI is badly directed. SHORT @ 99.70 with 91 & even 87 in sight.

COMPANY PREVIEW

Yahoo (USD 16.84 ; 12.79% ; YHOO ; YHOO.O)
Tuesday, Yahoo! Inc. is expected to report 2Q EPS of appx. $0.14 compared to $0.1 a year earlier on sales of $1.14bln vs $1.8bln. Recently, the Co could soon announce a search and online advertising agreement with Microsoft, according to Wall Street Journal's report. Technically, the Co continued to rebound last year but is currently close to a key resistance around $17.2. Hence, a test of it should be in sight before any further upsides.

Coca Cola (USD 50.32 ; 4.16% ; KO ; KO.N)
On the same day, Coca Cola could post 2Q EPS of $0.89 vs $1.01 last year on sales of appx. $8.5bln vs $9bln. Earlier, the soft drink giant planned to accelerate its investment in central and western China. In addition, the Co's price target was raised to $54 from $50 at Barclays. From a technical view, the shares stand well above a major horizontal support at $50. As long as this level holds on the downside, a further rise is more likely towards $52.8.

Morgan Stanley (USD 27.99 ; 7.9% ; MS ; MS.N)
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley may release 2Q LPS of $0.54 compared to last year's profit. Recently, the US bank holding company made a bid for three commercial properties in Hong Kong worth HK$1.5bln. Moreover, the Co won a bid to supply Argentina with three LNG shipments. Technically, the stock consolidated around its 20D and 50D MAs. Above 26.85, a further bounce is expected to $30.25 and $31.8 in extension.

Ford Motor (USD 6.14 ; 7.34% ; F ; F.N)
On Thursday, Ford Motor is expected to deliver a 2Q loss of $0.57 per share vs LPS of $0.62 a year earlier on sales of $24.6bln vs $41.5bln. Last week, the Co wanted to buy out minority shareholders in its Romania unit, Automobile Craiova. Earlier, the Co reported 1H sales in China up 14% to 197,212 vehicles. Technically, the stock remains well positively oriented, supported by its 20D MA. Hence, we expect the stock to test the nearest resistance at $6.25 before a further rise to $6.6.

Ericsson (B) (SEK 78.6 ; 6.79% ; ERICB ; ERICb.ST)
Friday, Ericsson could announce 2Q net income of SK2.3bln vs SK1.9bln last year on revenue of appx. SK53bln vs SK48.5bln. Recently, Sony Ericsson unveiled a loss of E213m in 2Q compared with last year's profit. Besides, Ericsson signed a contract with Telefonica O2 UK to provide managed services and field maintenance. From a technical view, the Co is currently testing a medium-term resistance level around $79, if breakout, a bullish acceleration should occur towards $83.65.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

CORPORATE CALENDAR July 20th - July 24th

Market

Company

Event

Monday, July 20th
	US	Boston Scientific	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Halliburton	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Hasbro	2nd-Quarter results
	US	M&T Bank	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Lexmark International	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Texas Instruments	2nd-Quarter results
Tuesday, July 21st
	US	Robert Half	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Caterpillar	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Coca Cola	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Lockheed Martin	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Yahoo	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Apple	3rd-Quarter results
Wednesday, July 22nd
	UK	Glaxosmithkline	1st-Half results
	US	Bank of New York Mellon	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Morgan Stanley	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Pepsico	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Boeing	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Pfizer	2nd-Quarter results
Thursday, July 23rd
	FR	Saint-Gobain	1st-Half results
	US	Ford Motor	2nd-Quarter results
	US	3M	2nd-Quarter results
	US	McDonald's	2nd-Quarter results
	US	AT&T	2nd-Quarter results
	US	American Express	2nd-Quarter results
Friday, July 24th
	FR	Danone	1st-Half results
	FR	TF1	2nd-Quarter results
	SW	Ericsson (B)	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Exelon Corp	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Schlumberger	2nd-Quarter results
	US	T Rowe Price Group	2nd-Quarter results

ECONOMIC CALENDAR (CET) July 20th - July 24th

Date	Market	Economic data	Period	Expected	Last
Monday, July 20th
08:00:00	GE	Producer Price Index (MoM)	JUN	0.5%	0%
10:30:00	UK	M4 Money Supply (MoM)	JUN	NA	0.2%
16:00:00	US	Leading Indicators	JUN	0.4%	1.2%
Tuesday, July 21st
10:30:00	UK	Public Sector Net Borrowing (Bln)	JUN	14.903125	19.861
10:30:00	UK	Public Finances (PSNCR) (Bln)	JUN	NA	18785
Wednesday, July 22nd
08:45:00	FR	Consumer Spending (MoM)	JUN	NA	-0.2%
16:30:00	US	Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)	W28	NA	-2813
Thursday, July 23rd
08:45:00	FR	Business Confidence Indicator	JUL	NA	75
08:45:00	FR	Production Outlook Indicator	JUL	NA	-40
10:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Current Account (Bln) (MoM)	MAY	NA	-9.2
10:30:00	UK	Retail Sales (MoM)	JUN	0.2%	-0.6%
14:30:00	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)	W28	562.8	522
16:00:00	US	Existing Home Sales (Mln)	JUN	4.81	4.77
Friday, July 24th
08:45:00	FR	Consumer Confidence	JUL	NA	-37
10:00:00	GE	IFO - Business Climate	JUL	86.6	85.9
10:00:00	GE	IFO - Current Assessment	JUL	83	82.4
10:00:00	GE	IFO - Expectations	JUL	90.1	89.5
10:30:00	UK	GDP (QoQ)	2Q	-0.3%	-2.4%
16:00:00	US	U. of Michigan Confidence	JUL	64.9	64.6

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