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Market Outlook June 1st - June 5th

 

Market Outlook

- US : US indices gained for a second week capping their third straight monthly gain. Stock futures added to gains on Monday after details emerged about General Motors' bankruptcy filing. Stocks from Semiconductors, Real Estate and Transportation gained whereas the S&P 500 Household & Personal Products Index declined. Technically, US indices are about to escape from their short term consolidation patterns. Consequently, further upside is favoured.

- EUROPE : European markets followed Wall Street advance last week. Oil prices trade above $65 for the first time this year while EURUSD stands above 1.40. Stocks from Basic Ressources, Oil & Gas and technology were among the best performers whereas Construction and Food & Beverage shares lost ground last week. On a technical point of view, indices have escaped from their short term triangle patterns. Consequently, further advance is likely in the days ahead.

  June 1st - June 5th

 Market Round up

 

Weekly chg (%)

Last

Dow Jones

2.5

8500.3

Nasdaq 100

5

1435.6

Dax Xetra

.4

4940.8

Cac 40

1.5

3277.7

border=0 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair is on the upside and remains within a bullish channel, the RSI is well directed. LONG above 1.3475 towards 1.4250 & 1.4750.

Dollar/yen : The pair has broken below its rising trend line and is challenging its intermediary support, the RSI is bearish. SHORT @ 97.20 with 91 & even 87 in sight.

Company preview

border=0 Bouygues (EUR 28.97 ; -4.83% ; EN ; BOUY.PA)
Tuesday, Bouygues could report after the market close 1Q net income of appx. E180m vs E224m a year earlier. Last week, the Co won a construction contract worth E180m in Hong Kong. Earlier, the Co announced 1Q consolidated sales of E6.7bln, down 2% YoY and 3% like-for-like at constant exchange rate. Bouygues Telecom posted a 6% increase in sales to E1.27bln. TF1's sales fell 18% on a worsening advertising market and a still-difficult economic environment. Technically, the stock remains under pressure below its 20D and 50D MAs. As long as E32 holds on the upside, a further pullback is expected to E26.9 and E25.7 in extension.

border=0 Ryanair (EUR 3.63 ; 10% ; RYA ; RYA.I)
On the same day, Ryanair Holdings may release a FY pre-tax loss vs the year earlier's profit on revenue of appx. E2.9bln vs E2.7bln. Recently, the Co said it planned to form a base in Malta and introduce 12 new routes there. Technically, the stock broke above a key medium-term horizontal level around E3.5 but seems to be capped by a resistance at E3.68. Since, the strong bullish volume has been witnessed in the past three days, a further rise is more likely to re-test E3.68 and then E3.9.

border=0 Northumbrian Water (GBp 242.75 ; -2.71% ; NWG ; NWG.L)
On Wednesday, Northumbrian Water, the UK utilities company is expected to release its FY results. Pre-tax profit may reach appx. 150m compared to 170m a year ago. A week ago, the Co was cut to "underperform" from "neutral" at Bank of America. From a technical point of view, the stock is consolidating above its rising 20D MA's support. Above 233p, a further rise will probably occur towards 260p and 270p in extension.

border=0 Johnson Matthey (GBp 1206 ; 0.08% ; JMAT ; JMAT.L)
Thursday, Johnson Matthey is scheduled to post its FY results. Pre-tax profit could be 250m compared to 186.2m a year earlier. Earlier, the Co was downgraded to "underweight" from "neutral" at JPMorgan. Technically, the stock is supported by its 50D MA as well as a medium-term rising trendline at 1070. Hence, we remain positive with targets at 1275 and 1300.

border=0 Carphone Warehouse (GBp 167.25 ; 2.29% ; CPW ; CPW.L)
Friday, Carphone Warehouse is expected to announce FY pre-tax profit of appx. 105m compared to 124.1m a year ago. Earlier, the UKs biggest mobile-phone retailer agreed to acquire Tiscali's UK unit for 236m. The Co sees a 10% rise in its EPS in 2010, boosted by the transaction. From a technical view, the stock remains on the upside above a bullish 20D MA and is expected to test the 172 resistance, if broken out, a further bounce should occur towards 185.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar June 1st - June 5th

Date

Market

Company

Event

border=0 Tuesday, June 2nd

 

FR

Bouygues

1st-Quarter results

 

IR

Ryanair

annual results

 

UK

Pennon Group

annual results

 

UK

Intermediate Capital Group

annual results

border=0 Wednesday, June 3rd

 

UK

Northumbrian Water

annual results

border=0 Thursday, June 4th

 

AS

Voestalpine

annual results

 

UK

Johnson Matthey

annual results

 

US

Ciena

2nd-Quarter results

border=0 Friday, June 5th

 

UK

Carphone Warehouse

annual results

Economic Calendar (CET) June 1st - June 5th

Date

Market

Economic data

Period

Expected

Last

border=0 Monday, June 1st

14:30:00

US

Personal Income

APR

-0.1%

-0.3%

14:30:00

US

Personal Spending

APR

-0.2%

-0.2%

16:00:00

US

Construction Spending (MoM)

APR

-1.5%

0.3%

16:00:00

US

ISM - Manufacturing

MAY

42.2

40.1

16:00:00

US

ISM - Price Paid

MAY

35.3

32

border=0 Tuesday, June 2nd

 

US

Total Vehicule Sales (Mln)

MAY

9.5

9.3

 

US

Domestic Vehicule Sales (Mln)

MAY

7

7

08:45:00

FR

Producer Price Index (MoM)

APR

-0.3%

-0.4%

10:30:00

UK

M4 Money Supply (MoM)

APR

NA

0.1%

10:30:00

UK

Net Consumer Credit (Mln)

APR

NA

.129

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate

APR

9.1%

8.9%

border=0 Wednesday, June 3rd

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM)

APR

-0.9%

-0.7%

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ)

1Q

-2.5%

-2.5%

16:00:00

US

Factory Orders

APR

0.4%

-0.9%

16:30:00

US

Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)

W22

NA

-5413

border=0 Thursday, June 4th

11:00:00

EC

Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM)

APR

-0.1%

-0.3%

13:00:00

UK

BoE: Rates decision

JUN

0.5%

0.5%

13:45:00

EC

ECB: Rates decision

JUN

1%

1%

14:30:00

US

Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)

W21

NA

623

14:30:00

US

Nonfarm Productivity

1Q

1.1%

0.8%

14:30:00

US

Unit Labor Costs

1Q

2.6%

3.3%

border=0 Friday, June 5th

 

10:30:00

UK

PPI - Output (MoM)

MAY

.004

0.6%

14:30:00

US

Unemployment Rate

MAY

9.2%

8.9%

14:30:00

US

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

MAY

0.1%

0.1%

14:30:00

US

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Thsd)

MAY

-538.82

-539

14:30:00

US

Change in Manufact. Payrolls (Thsd)

MAY

-149

-149

14:30:00

US

Average Weekly Hours

MAY

33.2

33.2

 
 


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