Market Outlook June 29th - July 3rd

Market Outlook

- US : US markets fell last week, after the World Bank said the recession will be deeper than previously planned. As expected the Fed left interest unchanged and the FOMC said that the pace of economic contraction was slowing. Stocks from Telecommunication, Transportation and Household & Personal Products rose last week whereas Consumer Durable, Energy and Capital Goods sectors led the decline. Technically, bearish divergences are still valid on daily indicators. Consequently, the downside risk still prevails in the short term.

- EUROPE : European markets declined last week led by Healthcare, Oil & Gas and Chemical sectors. On the upside, Automobile & Parts, Retail and Telecommunication sectors managed to gain ground wow. On Thursday, investors will take a close look at June's job report to see how sustainable the recent rally is. On a technical point of view, European indices have escaped from their short term ascending channel. Consequently, further decline remains favoured in the coming days.

June 29th - July 3rd

Market Round up

	Weekly chg (%)	Last
Dow Jones	-1.2	8438.4
Nasdaq 100	0.6	1480.2
Dax Xetra	1.8	4776.6
Cac 40	0.1	3127.3

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair is challenging its channel lower boundary but remains below its resistance, the RSI lacks upward momentum. SHORT below 1.44 towards 1.37 & 1.3250.

Dollar/yen : The pair has struck against its LT declining trend line and remains under pressure. SHORT @ 101.20 with 94 & even 91 in sight.

Company preview

Apollo Group (A) (USD 68.5 ; 3.49% ; APOL ; APOL.O)
On Monday, Apollo Group could release 3Q EPS of appx. $1.1 compared with $0.86 a year ago on sales of around $1bln vs $835m. Recently, the Co agreed to buy all of the shares of BPP Holdings plc, a UK education and training provider at 620p per share in cash, representing a total value of appx. $540m. Technically, the stock is testing the upper boundary of its medium-term downside channel. Hence, above $65, we expect a short-term consolidation before a further rise to $72 at first.

H&R Block (USD 15.42 ; 0.26% ; HRB ; HRB.N)

On the same day, H&R Block, the US tax services provider, is expected to report 4Q EPS of $2.05 compared to $2.33 a year ago. Recently, the Co named C. E. Andrews to be the new president of its RSM McGladrey unit. From a technical point of view, the stock remains under pressure below a huge resistance at $16.5. Since its 50D MA is still bearish, without showing any reversal signs, a further pullback is more likely to $14.5 and $13.8 in extension.

General Mills (USD 55.28 ; 1.02% ; GIS ; GIS.N)
Wednesday, General Mills may post 4Q EPS of $0.8 almost in line with last year on sales of around $3.7bln vs $3.47bln. Earlier this month, the Co said its current estimates of fiscal 2009 EPS would exceed its most recent guidance of $3.87-$3.89, excluding certain items, due to good operating performance and a lower 4Q tax rate. Technically, the stock stands well above its ascending 20D and 50D MAs. In which case, a further upside should occur to $57.8 and then to $60.

Constellation Brands (USD 12.28 ; -5.39% ; STZ ; STZ.N)
The same day, Constellation Brands is expected to release 1Q EPS of $0.32 vs $0.34 a year earlier on sales of $777m vs $931m. Earlier, the Co announced CEO Jon Moramarco of Constellation International would leave the Co effective June 30. From a technical view, the shares remains supported by a key horizontal support at $12. As long as this level holds on the downside, we expect a further rebound to $13.5 at first.

UBS (CHF 13 ; -5.73% ; UBSN ; UBSN.VX)
Last Friday in Europe, UBS said it was selling appx. 293.3m new shares to institutional investors at SF13 per share. In addition, the Co forecast a net loss for its 2Q 2009, mainly attributable to credit and restructuring charges. From a technical view, the remains capped by a two months declining trend line. The risk is now a slide below SF13, which would trigger a downside acceleration towards SF12 and SF11.2 in extension.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar June 29th - July 3rd

Date	Market	Company	Event
Monday, June 29th
	US	H&R Block	4th-Quarter results
	US	Apollo Group (A)	3rd-Quarter results
Wednesday, July 1st
	US	General Mills	4th-Quarter results
	US	Constellation Brands	1st-Quarter results

Economic Calendar (CET) June 29th - July 3rd

Date	Market	Economic data	Period	Expected	Last
Monday, June 29th
10:30:00	UK	M4 Money Supply (MoM)	MAY	NA	0.2%
10:30:00	UK	Net Consumer Credit (Mln)	MAY	0.226	0.314
11:00:00	EC	Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence	JUN	-31.8	-34
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence	JUN	-30.2	-31
11:00:00	EC	Business Climate Indicator	JUN	NA	-3.17
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence	JUN	70.9	69.3
Tuesday, June 30th
08:45:00	FR	Producer Price Index (MoM)	MAY	NA	-0.9%
09:55:00	GE	Unemployment Rate	JUN	8.3%	8.2%
10:30:00	UK	Current Account (Bln)	1Q	-6.24	-7.64
10:30:00	UK	GDP (QoQ)	1Q	-2.1%	-1.9%
15:45:00	US	Chicago Purchasing Manager Index	JUN	38.9	34.9
16:00:00	US	Consumer Confidence	JUN	55.03	54.9
Wednesday, July 1st
08:00:00	GE	Retail Sales (MoM)	MAY	-0.1%	0.5%
16:00:00	US	Construction Spending (MoM)	MAY	-0.5%	0.8%
16:00:00	US	ISM - Manufacturing	JUN	44	42.8
16:00:00	US	ISM - Price Paid	JUN	46.5	43.5
16:30:00	US	Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)	W25	NA	-3868
Thursday, July 2nd
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate	MAY	9.33%	9.2%
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM)	MAY	0%	-1%
13:45:00	EC	ECB: Rates decision		1%	1%
14:30:00	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)	W25	NA	627
14:30:00	US	Unemployment Rate	JUN	9.6%	9.4%
16:00:00	US	Factory Orders	MAY	0.3%	0.7%
Friday, July 3rd
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM)	MAY	-0.2%	0.2%

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