Market Outlook July 13th - July 17th - Investment International

Market Outlook

- US : US markets fell for a fourth straight week, as a deeper-than-estimated slide in consumer confidence added to concern the economic recovery will be delayed. Investors will take a close look at advance retail sales on Tuesday. Stocks from Capital Goods, Semiconductors, Real Estate, Energy and Telecom Services led the decline whereas House. & Personal Prod and Retailing rose. Technically, bearish divergences are still valid on daily indicators. Consequently, the downside risk still prevails in the short term. - EUROPE : European markets declined for a fourth straight week led by Insurance, Utilities and Financial Services. On a technical point of view, European indices trade within a short term descending channel. Consequently, further decline remains favoured in the coming days.

July 13th - July 17th

Market Round up

	Weekly chg (%)	Last
Dow Jones	-1.6	8146.5
Nasdaq 100	-1.8	1419.8
Dax Xetra	-2.5	4535.7
Cac 40	-3.8	2965.5

Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The RSI is breaking below its MT rising trend line, the pair is challenging its support and should face a further weakness. SHORT below 1.44 towards 1.37 & 1.3250. Dollar/yen : The pair remains under pressure and is challenging its support, the RSI advocates for a further decline. SHORT @ 101.20 with 94 & even 91 in sight.

Company preview

Goldman Sachs (USD 141.87 ; -1.13% ; GS ; GS.N)
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs is expected to deliver 2Q EPS of $3.57 compared to $4.58 a year ago. Last week, the stock was upgraded to "buy" from "neutral" at Bank of America. Technically, above $135, the stock should test its key resistance at $150 before further upsides to $168 at first. Intel (USD 16.04 ; -4.07% ; INTC ; INTC.O)
On the same day, Intel may report 2Q EPS of around $0.08 vs $0.29 last year on sales of $7.25bln vs $9.47bln. Last week, the Co accepted shares in tender offer for Wind River Systems for $11.50 per share and started a subsequent offering period to buy all remaining shares during July 10-15. Moreover, the Co may seek a partnership with Google to support the Android platform on Intel-based mobile Internet devices. Technically, since the stock still holds above its 50D MA, we are cautiously positive to see $17.1 as a first target Nokia (EUR 10.1 ; -2.13% ; NOK1V ; NOK1V.HE)
Thursday, Nokia could unveil 2Q net income of E480m vs E1.1bln on revenues of E10.1bln vs appx. E13.2bln. Earlier, the Co was added to Bank of America's European technology "most preferred" list. Besides, its venture, Nokia Siemens Networks secured a 3yr E2bln revolving credit facility with a syndicate of international banks. Technically, the stock remains under pressure below its 50D MA. The risk is now a slide below its key support at E10, which should trigger a bearish acceleration towards E8.9. Google (USD 414.4 ; 1.45% ; GOOG ; GOOG.O)
The same day, Google is expected to announce 2Q EPS of appx. $5.1 vs $3.92 a year ago on sales of $4.05bln vs $5.35bln. Recently, the Co planned to create the Google Chrome Operating System and also teamed up with Acer, Hewlett-Packard, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments to build devices that work with the system. From a technical view, the stock bounced off from a major support zone around $395-$385. Hence, a further up move is more likely to $427 and $445 in extension. Citigroup (USD 2.59 ; -10.07% ; C ; C.N)
On Friday, Citigroup may post a 2Q loss. Last week, the Co appointed John Gerspach as its new CFO, replacing Edward "Ned" Kelly. In addition, the Co said Chairman of Citi Holdings, Gary Crittenden decided to leave the Co. From a technical view, the stock continued to decline last week following a downside breakout of its $2.95 support. Even if a short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out, a further pullback should occur towards $2.25. Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar July 13th - July 17th

Date	Market	Company	Event
Monday, July 13th
	NE	Philips Electronics	1st-Half results
	SW	Getinge B	2nd-Quarter results
	US	CSX	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Fastenal	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Novellus Systems	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Charles Schwab	2nd-Quarter results
Tuesday, July 14th
	US	Johnson & Johnson	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Goldman Sachs	2nd-Quarter results
	US	M&T Bank	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Yum Brands	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Altera	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Intel	2nd-Quarter results
Wednesday, July 15th
	US	Abbott Laboratories	2nd-Quarter results
	US	WW Grainger	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Gannett	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Cintas	4th-Quarter results
	US	Xilinx	1st-Quarter results
	SZ	SGS	1st-Half results
Thursday, July 16th
	FI	Nokia	2nd-Quarter results
	US	JP Morgan Chase	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Marriott International (A)	2nd-Quarter results
	US	IBM	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Google	2nd-Quarter results
	SZ	Novartis	2nd-Quarter results
Friday, July 17th
	SW	Husqvarna	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Morgan Stanley	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Bank of America	2nd-Quarter results
	US	First Horizon National	2nd-Quarter results
	US	General Electric	2nd-Quarter results
	US	Citigroup	2nd-Quarter results

Economic Calendar (CET) July 13th - July 17th

Date	Market	Economic data	Period	Expected	Last
Monday, July 13th
20:00:00	US	Monthly Budget Satement (Bln)	JUN	-59.689	-189.651
Tuesday, July 14th
10:30:00	UK	CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)	JUN	0.3%	0.6%
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM)	MAY	NA	-1.4%
11:00:00	GE	Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment)	JUL	47.6	44.8
14:30:00	US	Producer Price Index (MoM)	JUN	0.8%	0.2%
14:30:00	US	Retail Sales	JUN	0.3%	0.5%
16:00:00	US	Business Inventories	MAY	-1%	-1.1%
Wednesday, July 15th
10:30:00	UK	Unemployment Rate (ILO)	MAY	7.4%	7.2%
14:30:00	US	Empire Manufacturing	JUL	-4.34	-9.41
14:30:00	US	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	JUN	0.6%	0.1%
15:15:00	US	Industrial Production (MoM)	JUN	-0.6%	-1.1%
15:15:00	US	Industrial Capacity Utilization	JUN	67.9%	68.3%
16:30:00	US	Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg)	W27	NA	-2896
Thursday, July 16th
08:45:00	FR	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	JUN	NA	0.2%
08:45:00	FR	CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM)	JUN	NA	0.1%
14:30:00	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd)	W27	NA	565
16:00:00	US	Philadelphia Fed.	JUL	-4.72	-2.2
19:00:00	US	NAHB Housing Market	JUL	16	15
Friday, July 17th
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln)	MAY	NA	2.7
11:00:00	EC	Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln) (MoM)	MAY	NA	2.7
14:30:00	US	Housing Starts (Thsd)	JUN	529	532
14:30:00	US	Bulding Permits (Thsd)	JUN	528	518

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