Market Outlook November 30th - Dec 4th

Market Outlook

- US : US indices fell moderately WoW as Dubai financing problems increased investors concern about the strength of the economic rebound. The VIX index, a volatility indicator, bounced reflecting this more cautious view on the market. Defensive sectors such as Telecom. Services (+3.12%), Health Care Equipment (+2.64%) and Pharma. & Bio. (+1.53%) traded up WoW. Shares in Banks (-2.3%), Diversified Financials (-3.12%) and Real Estate (-3.53%) fell. Technically, indices should continue to trade sideways below the year's highs.

- EUROPE : European indices were mixed last week. Stocks in Health Care (+1.66%), Telecommunications (+1.23%) and Chemicals (+0.9%) rose while shares in the Auto (-1.65%), Financial Services (-1.83%) and Banks (-2.17%) were under pressure. Technically, the outlook remains uncertain around the current level with the 250/52 area on the Stoxx 600 index a key level to break for further upside.

  November 30th - December 4th

 Market Round up

 Foreign Exchange

Euro/dollar : The pair is on the upside and is challenging its resistance, the RSI is turning up and advocates for further advance. LONG above 1.4450 towards 1.5250 & 1.58.

Dollar/yen : The pair remains within a bearish channel and is breaking below its support, the RSI is badly directed. SHORT @ 92.3 with 87 or even 84.20 in sight.

Company preview

 Bouygues (EUR 33.48 ; -4.95% ; EN ; BOUY.PA)
Tuesday, Bouygues is expected to release 3Q net income of appx. E400m compared to E501m a year earlier. Recently, the Co announced 9mths sales down 3% to E23.2bln compared to last year. In addition, the Co was upgraded to "equal-weight" from "underweight" at Morgan Stanley. Technically, the stock remains under pressure below a horizontal resistance at E35.5. Below this level, a further pullback is more likely to E32 and then to E30.

 TUI Travel Plc (GBp 243.7 ; -1.93% ; TT/ ; TT.L)
TUI Travel Plc may deliver FY pre-tax profit of appx. £325m vs last year's loss on revenue of £13.85bln, almost unchanged YoY. Earlier, the Co was downgraded to "equal-weight" from "overweight" at Morgan Stanley and was also rated "neutral" at HSBC. From a technical point of view, the stock should remain in a large 220-280 trading range and may test the lower boundary at first.

 Sage Group (GBp 217.6 ; -2.55% ; SGE ; SGE.L)
On Wednesday, Sage Group, the UK software publishing company, could release FY pre-tax profit of appx. £300m vs £241m a year earlier on revenues of £1.43bln vs around £1.3bln. Recently, the Co formed a strategic alliance with Netvibes to bring the improved Web 2.0 technologies to the enterprise. Technically, the stock might be well forming a potential H&S pattern (a bearish reversal pattern). The risk is now a downside penetration of the 211p neckline, which should trigger a further down move to 200 at first.

 Marvell Technology (USD 15.63 ; 2.36% ; MRVL ; MRVL.O)
Thursday, in the US, Marvell Technology is expected to unveil 3Q EPS of $0.26 vs $0.17 a year earlier on sales of $770m vs $791m. Earlier, the Co raised its 3Q sales outlook to $760m-$775m from the previous forecast of $680m-$730m thanks to higher demand. From a chartist point of view, the stock remains well positively oriented, backed by its rising moving averages. Above $14.5, the stock should test its nearest resistance at 16.50 at first and then to $18 as a medium-term target.

 Siemens (EUR 65.72 ; -1.17% ; SIE ; SIEGn.DE)
The same day, Siemens may deliver 4Q net income of E735m vs last year's loss on revenue of E19.2bln vs E21.65bln. Early this month, the Co planned to seek a partner in China about setting up its wind-power turbine manufacturing plant there. Furthermore, the Co won an order worth E327m to upgrade power grid from Transpower New Zealand Ltd. Technically, the stock bounced off from a MT rising trend line's support, a test of a key level at E67.3 should be in sight before a further rebound to E70 and E75 in extension.

Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps

Corporate Calendar November 30th - December 4th

Economic Calendar (CET) November 30th - December 4th