Invesco Real Estate predicts polarised markets over the next five years

European real estate investment markets are likely to see great differences in the coming months with Central and Eastern parts expected to deliver the strongest medium term returns, according to a new report.

Attractive opportunities exist, but rental growth and active management are the key to a productive investment, says the Invesco Real Estate Spring 2011 House View report.

It points out that a combination of bond rate movements, globalisation of capital flows and increased development pipeline are expected to push some prime Western European yields outwards over the next five years.
 
Greater differentiation between European countries is expected in the short to medium term, with Germany, Switzerland and the Nordics continuing to out perform with GDP growth in the 2.5 to 3% range. Within the core European countries such as France and the Benelux, growth is expected to be slower, within the range of 1.5 to 2%.

The report highlights that the UK and Italy sit between the struggling economies and those at the core, with GDP growth of between 1 to 1.5% expected. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean economies and Ireland are forecasted to struggle with GDP growth of less than 1% as the process of deleveraging continues.

‘We believe the office sector will deliver the best short term returns in supply constrained city centres, whilst in the medium term the retail is expected to be the strongest performing asset class, supported in Central and Eastern Europe by a burgeoning and wealthier middle class,’ the report says.
 
‘However, short term performance in the retail sector is likely to be weak as austerity measures weigh on consumer confidence. Logistics will continue to play an important role within portfolio strategies as a provider of stable income returns in Invesco Real Estate's view,' it adds.

According to Simon Mallinson, European research director 2011 will offer numerous opportunities to deploy capital into European real estate with the potential to deliver attractive returns over the next five years.
 
‘Although Southern European markets are expected to struggle in the short to medium term, we expect Central and Eastern European markets will provide an attractive real estate investment opportunity and record the strongest medium term GDP growth,’ he said.

‘Key to securing value growth is the under writing of investments, based on lease structures and rental growth prospects, with yields expected to move outwards in the medium term,’ he added.